Analysts: Erdogan seeks to revive ISIS to disrupt the Autonomous Administration experiment through Turkey’s strikes
Experts and observers of Syrian affairs concur that the recent Turkish strikes on NES regions could revive terrorist organizations, particularly ISIS, leading to their resurgence, especially since the strikes aimed at the SDF (the Syrian Democratic Forces), which they played the pivotal role in defeating terrorism on behalf of the world.
This is not the first time that there have been warnings of Turkish attacks and their repercussions on the revival of terrorist organizations, to the extent that American writers are urging their country to intervene against Erdogan’s policies, because he is undermining anti-terrorism efforts.
Turkey favours ISIS over Kurds in North and East Syria
Ahmed Sultan, a researcher in the affairs of Islamic movements, told Target Media Platform: “The Turkish strikes certainly affect counter-terrorism work, because they mainly target the SDF. which is the main force involved in combating terrorism in the regions of North East Syria. Meanwhile, SDF is forced to direct part of its efforts to deal with these attacks, as well to be preoccupied with Ankara’s actions.
Sultan mentioned, “In such cases, the SDF is compelled to relocate its military spots due to the airstrikes. Some of these areas overlap with ISIS sleeper cells, as a precaution against Turkish airstrikes, given that the SDF forces lack anti-aircraft capabilities.”
He pointed out that the Turkish army has recently escalated operations against the Kurds in NES and North Iraq, targeting military and security leaders, Sultan refereed that targeting forces where they are engaged in combating terrorism would alleviate pressure on ISIS, potentially leading to an increase in its attacks.
The researcher on Islamic movements emphasized that ISIS is expected to escalate its attacks, capitalizing on the impact of Turkish strikes, particularly in regions like the countryside of Deir ez-Zor. Consequently, there is an anticipation that terrorist organizations, in general, will see increased activity, with the latter actively seeking a resurgence.
Sultan addressed Turkey’s priorities in North and East Syria, suggesting that Turkey perceives the presence of ISIS as preferable to the presence of Kurds in those areas. This perspective is rooted in the belief that ISIS lacks a specific agenda concerning Turkey, as ISIS considers Turkey a state of strategic importance, that it can use to move weapons and shelter its personnels, therefore does not seek to threaten or target Turkish state.
He clarified that Turkey perceives the presence of Kurds on its borders as more perilous than ISIS. Moreover, there is a belief that Turkey could potentially establish some form of implicit coordination with ISIS. whether secretly or through some personnels, thus we have not seen attacks carried out by the ISIS against Turkey for years.
The recent Turkish strikes focused on a number of security headquarters, as well as a gas station, a hospital, factories for the production of food and agricultural materials, health facilities, it also led to the death of at least eight people, including women and children and injuries. This airstrike operation occurred for the second time in the last three months.
Turkey has goals for the return of ISIS
Political analyst Dr. Taha Ali said in a statement to Target Media Platform that “Turkey with these strikes has plans to revive the activity of terrorist organizations in NES, this comes as exploiting the developments of events in the Middle East to achieve two goals, one political and the other military”.
Ali explained that the return of extremist groups could be an important tool for Turks to pressure the Americans in North and East Syria, as we have recently seen US forces exposed to large-scale attacks on US military bases in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Iraq. Hence, the Turkish state is concurrently applying pressure on Washington.
He believes that the second goal for Turkey is in context of a social nature, as the extremist groups in the beginning came through Turkey as a transit country, therefore it is involved in strengthening the presence of these organizations. Their return creates a turbulent environment. In addition to targeting infrastructure and factories, which constitutes a hit to the economy in the Autonomous Administration areas, thus the possibility of stoking social crises to thwart the Autonomous Administration project, by increasing poverty, exacerbating the problem of unemployment.
He said that Turkey is planning with these strikes to drown the population of NES in crises, then the possibility of creating a state of pressure on the Autonomous Administration, thus the latter finds itself a failure in the face of these crises. Ali considering that this is the goal that Ankara seeks through these strikes as well as supporting terrorist organizations, especially as we are at an important stage of developments in the Middle East.
Thwart the Autonomous Administration project
Dr. Taha Ali mentioned to Target Media Platform that Turkey’s targeting of vital facilities and infrastructure in NES is part of what can be termed as fourth-generation wars. These conflicts have adverse effects on the economy, leading to social repercussions for the citizens. referring that this happened in Egypt before 2013 when terrorist groups were trying to hit the Egyptian economy by targeting, some electricity transformers near factories.
At the conclusion, Ali indicated that Erdogan is taking advantage of America’s preoccupation with the Gaza crisis, and expanding his military operations against the Kurdish component in NES, all this chaos is to create a turbulent environment that can be used in negotiations or discussions between Turkey-America relations.
The General Command of the Internal Security Forces in NES confirmed in a statement that the Turkish strikes are only attempts to create chaos in all areas under its control. the targeting of security checkpoints is also an attempt to open the way for terrorist sleeper cells and criminal groups to move easily and spread chaos.
In early October, Turkey launched similar strikes, and the US State Department expressed concern about the impact of these strikes on counterterrorism efforts, calling on all parties to restraint and avoid escalation.