The geopolitical move: Russia’s role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The most recent events in Gaza cast a shadow on the already tense relations between the major powers, particularly in the context of the American-Russian conflict. Moscow, obviously taking an oppositional stance in comparison to the US government, has been blamed for being complicit in the escalation in the Middle East by some observers.
Hamas, on the other hand, appears to have entered the geopolitical stage indirectly in order to gain advantages, such as the weakening of the US support for the Ukraine and the surmounting of international isolation.
The Russian perspective on the conflict
On October 10, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin commented on the developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He depicted the escalation as an example for the failure of US politics in the region of the Middle East. These words appear to be directed specifically at Washington, especially due to the US’ continued support for the Ukraine, which has been subjected to Russian attacks since February 24, 2022.
Putin accused the US government of “monopolizing” a conflict solution without considering the “pursuit of an acceptable solution for both sides”. He criticized the US policy of disseminating and propagating its own ideas concerning further proceedings and asserting pressure on both conflict parties, without properly taking the interests of the Palestinians into consideration.
On October 17, 2023, Putin had a phone call with the head of states of Egypt, Syria, Iran, the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli Prime Minister. The discussion revolved around a ceasefire, the implementation of a humanitarian ceasefire and the creation of sage corridors for the delivery of aid items, medicine and food supplies for the residents of the Gaza Strip.
Amid this complex geopolitical situation, Russia apparently seeks to strengthen its position and play a crucial role in the search for a peaceful solution in the Middle East conflict.
Russia’s benefits from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
In recent weeks, experts have increasingly focused on the question of how Russia is benefiting from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Some observers argue that this is part of the Kremlin’s efforts to break the isolation that beset the country following the incursion on the Ukraine.
The renowned Russian newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” discussed this perspective in an article, issued on October 21, 2023. It argues that Russia might benefit from Washington’s fading attention towards the Ukraine, in case that the overall focus increasingly shifts to the events in the Middle East.
French analysis: A „present” for Moscow
According to the French newspaper „Le Monde”, Western diplomats regard the ongoing conflict between the Hamas and Israel as a strategic “gift” for Moscow. The assumption was that Russia is attempting to undermine the unity in the West. The report further highlights that, despite the threat of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East and Syria, the Russian media hardly concealed its satisfaction concerning the attacks on October 07, 2023.
US-view on Russia’s role in the Gaza Conflict
In an exclusive interview with the Media Platform „Target“, Hazem Al-Ghabra, a former US State Department advisor, commented on the ongoing speculation about Russia’s role in the conflict. He emphasized that no concrete evidence for a direct involvement of Russia in the attacks of the Hamas exists. Al-Ghabra questioned the possible coordination between Russia and Iran, the alleged mastermind behind the operation. However, he stressed that, according to the US’ convictions, Russia was not the driving force behind the events.
Finally, Al-Ghabra analyzed Russia’s purported benefits from the conflict. He argued that, regardless of the question of a direct involvement of Russia, the Russian government benefited from the distractions for the US administration. In particular, he noted that US efforts to support two wars simultaneously have been curtailed by the strong focus on the conflict in Gaza and the ongoing war in the Ukraine.
Thus, the question remains: Will the events in the Middle East be sufficient for precipitating a substantial alteration of the geopolitical dynamics, in particular regarding the Ukraine? This question continues to remain interesting due to the current events.
The Israeli perspective towards Russia
Reflecting on the implications of Russia’s stance towards Israel, Hazem Al-Ghabra told the Target Platform: “Israel may support the Ukraine much stronger and more effectively. However, Israel is currently focused on the ongoing war in Gaza and the clashes alongside the Northern and Southern borders. Therefore, it seems unlikely that there will be a request from the Ukraine to Israel. The current situation renders such a request to appear to be illogical. “The only type of weapons that the Ukraine may need from Israel and which Israel produces, are precision-guided arms that have proven their effectiveness in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.
Al-Ghabra further highlighted: “A similar weapon is offered by the US government and there is no requirement concerning the same type, provided by Israel. However, nevertheless, I am convinced that Israel will respond to the events of October 07, 2023 as well as their repercussions in the near future. This could manifest itself as a positive step towards the Ukraine, whether through arm sales or increased political support”.
Regardless of whether Moscow planned, directly orchestrated or otherwise supported the attack of the Hamas, it is clear that this event achieved several goals. Moscow has, so to speak, killed several birds with one stone. On the other hand, the US administration was forced to supply weapons to Israel that might otherwise have gone to the Ukraine. On the other hand, Moscow has once again taught everyone a lesson in respecting international law and human rights, while partially breaking the isolation, imposed on it. However, this lesson will reverberate and bear a strong impact.