Syrian refugees displaced by drought and war feel trapped

Pinar Dinc and Lina Eklund, researchers at the Centre of Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, have published a research paper entitled ‘Syrian farmers in the midst of drought and conflict: the causes, patterns, and aftermath of land abandonment and migration’. In their research paper, they present a range of insights, including the situation of Syrian farmers before and after the war. The researchers surveyed 82 former Syrian farmers in Turkey, conducted 16 in-depth interviews and analyzed satellite imagery to examine land use activities.

Maladaptive migration

The research paper notes that there are more than 6.8 million Syrians living outside Syria, with approximately 7 million Syrians internally displaced. Turkey hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, with an estimated 3.7 million Syrians under temporary protection. According to figures shared by the Presidency of Migration Management in Turkey, Istanbul hosts the largest number of Syrians under temporary protection (around 530.000), followed by Gaziantep (around 450.000), Şanlıurfa (around 350.000), Hatay (around 330.000), Adana (around 245.000) and Mersin (around 340.000). The article underlines that farmers in Syria continue to face challenges due to a variety of factors, including drought, economic hardships (e.g. high inflation rates, weakening currency, energy and fuel shortages), as well as poor agricultural and water management. Dinc and Eklund note that several studies have shown that migration can increase vulnerability and reduce the adaptive capacity of migrants and their families, often referred to as erosive or maladaptive migration.

Forced migration

Focusing on the distinction between ‘forced displacement’ and ‘migration as an adaptive response’, the researchers delve deeper into the impact of drought in Syria. The report concludes that before the war, Syrian farmers had not abandoned their land despite taking adaptation measures to cope with drought, and that the turning point that led to long-term migration was the period of war and conflict after 2011. Another study shows that the effects of drought differs significantly between Syria and Turkey, two neighboring countries with similar climatic conditions, indicating the importance of political and socio-economic factors that had led to increased drought vulnerability in Syria. Other findings suggest that financial difficulties remain a dominant factor influencing people’s decisions to migrate after 2011. After the war in Syria, lack of access to services such as health and education has become a factor addressed by a large group of respondents.

Syrian migrants feel trapped

Another point highlighted in the research article is that refugees can feel trapped or stranded even after leaving their homes. Syrian respondents interviewed by the researchers said that they are unable to travel within Turkey due to the Temporary Protection Regulations to which they are subjected. One of the respondents, who lives in Turkey, commented to the researchers: “I feel like I am being choked here. The war in Syria was difficult, but sometimes I say ‘what is this place I came to, I cannot even get a travel permission document’.” It is also reported that 25 percent of Syrians in Turkey (about 1 million people, 20 percent of whom are minors) often work as undocumented workers as they do not have work permits. Respondents told researchers that they felt trapped in Turkey as they considered whether they could go elsewhere, such as a new destination like Europe or their home country Syria. The report states: “This is also an indication of how diverse ‘new forms of mobility’ emerge based on the migration regimes of host countries and the changing or lasting conditions in the sending country”.

Uncertainties make migrants more vulnerable

According to Dinc and Eklund, it is important to address the legal uncertainties of forced migrants, especially in the context of climate migration. They argue that these uncertainties have made migrants highly vulnerable. The researchers add that while their research focused on Syrian migrants who were able to leave the country, many migrants remain trapped in Syria due to legal uncertainties, while others are stuck in their host countries and unable to move to a third country. As a result, the researchers stress that many refugees face permanent obstacles in their efforts to improve their living conditions, and that semi-trapped people continue to seek alternative routes, from formal asylum applications to illegal migration through human smuggling, to reach a third country.