He may fail in the parliament and the presidency – How does the Kurdish vote complicate Erdogan’s electoral calculation?

Turkey is awaiting in the next month, specifically the 14th of May, a major political battle that some see as the most important in the country’s history as presidential and legislative elections will be held, in which observers and many reports agree that the Kurdish vote clearly and unprecedentedly confuses the accounts of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

So far, 4 candidates representing 3 alliances and a single party are running in the presidential elections. They are the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, Muharram Ince, an independent candidate from the Homeland Party, and Sinan Ogan, the candidate of the Ata Alliance.

Accounts of the last weeks before the Turkish elections

Most of the opinion polls over the past days come in favor of Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the “Kamali” Republican People’s Party, especially with the pro-minority Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) declaring that it did not present a candidate, which is implicitly understood as support for the Republican People’s candidate as ahe strongest competitor, especially in the presidential race.

The Kurdish voting bloc is estimated at about 6 million votes, which can simply prevent the ruling Justice and Development Party from achieving a parliamentary majority that makes it form a government unilaterally. As for the presidency, it can at least prevent Erdogan from resolving the elections early through the first round and force him to a second round where he might fail.

Fierce presidential elections and the Kurds constitute the critical mass

Karam Saeed, an expert on Turkish affairs, says, in exclusive statements to the “Target” media platform, that the Peoples’ Democratic Party announced that it will not provide a candidate in the upcoming elections, which some considered an implicit sign of the Kurdish bloc’s vote for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Saeed added that the Kurds already represent a strong critical mass in the upcoming elections, as evidenced by their possession of about 6 million votes, and the matter is not limited to their numerical strength only, but rather they have features that may not be found in other opposition forces, as they are a largely consistent voting bloc. They also often vote for opposition candidates, especially in light of the complexity of the Kurdish crisis and the collapse of the peace negotiations with the Justice and Development government, and what followed after the municipal elections by excluding all the Kurdish mayors who were able to succeed.

The expert on Turkish affairs confirms that in light of this, the Kurdish voting bloc is able to decide the position of the Turkish presidential elections, or at least represents a great driving force for any candidate choosing to vote for them, which certainly makes the election calculations not easy for Erdogan.

Erdogan’s attempts to break up the Kurdish bloc

In the face of fears of the Kurdish vote in the elections, the Turkish president resorted to attracting the Al-Huda Party, which is a Kurdish political party, but it is also conservative and believes in the ideas of applying Islamic law, hoping that the entry of this party into Erdogan’s coalition will contribute to dispersing the Kurdish voter and showing “Erdogan” as a candidate for everyone living inside Turkey, including the Kurds.

However, American reports analyzing the elections, including the “Examiner” newspaper, recently said that the Al-Huda Party is nothing but a point of weakness for the “Erdogan” coalition, because it does not constitute a real Kurdish force and does not express the general Kurdish voice, and also because the party speaks publicly about the application of Islamic law in governance, which is something that contradicts the nature and principles of the Turkish Republic and has caused disagreements even with Erdogan’s allies, which makes him unable to attract votes outside the Kurdish circle.

In this context, a report by the Turkish opposition newspaper “Zaman” stated that Erdogan’s ploy to break up the Kurdish bloc by including the Al-Huda Party failed, and the Turkish president was forced in the end to exclude the Al-Huda Party from his alliance towards the presidency because that decision had negatives, and it was satisfied that the head of this party was Zakaria. Yabişoğlu, is one of the candidates on the lists of the Justice and Development Party for the parliamentary elections.

The Kurds have an opportunity to achieve their demands

Mostafa Salah, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs, says that the voting bloc for the Kurds represents a fifth of the total of those who have the right to vote in the upcoming Turkish elections, a ratio that literally constitutes what can be called the “critical mass” in the upcoming Turkish elections.

Salah added, in exclusive statements to the “Target” media platform, that although the polls indicate that the Kurds vote in favor of opposition candidates, especially Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, this does not preclude the existence of demands for them, meaning that support for opposition candidates will not be without any exchange.

He pointed out that the Kurds will be at the forefront of their demands for the release of prisoners and detainees in the prisons of the Turkish regime in the event of the victory of the Republican People’s candidate, headed by Selahattin Demirtash, the former co-chair of the party, as well as the recognition of the Kurdish language as a second language in the country, and the participation of the Kurds in writing a new constitution for Turkey. Lastly, the integration of the Kurds into Turkish society and the elimination of institutional discrimination against them is also a fierce demand.

Depriving the Justice and Development of the parliamentary majority

“Salah” stressed that the Kurdish bloc will represent a decisive factor in the upcoming Turkish presidential elections, and in light of the voting behavior that we witnessed in the past elections, in addition to the growing opposition against Erdogan, especially by the youth, the following:

— The Justice and Development Party will not be able to achieve a parliamentary majority that allows it to have a government alone, and it will need to enter into coalitions.

As for the presidential elections, Erdogan, due to the Kurdish vote and the strength of the opposition that united to overthrow him, will at least not win it in the first round, and he may also fall in the second round.

It is noteworthy that the Turkish president has been practicing a great deal of repression in Kurdish circles over the past period, as a form of intimidation before the upcoming elections, especially by arresting many Kurdish leaders of politics, thought and opinion.

It should also be noted that Erdogan’s victory in the elections does not mean a failure for the Kurdish bloc, because the latter is first and foremost part of the opposition forces, but the non-Kurdish opposition forces have many internal problems and disagreements, in addition to the lack of conviction of many Turkish voters in their ability to offer alternatives. .