The Turkish opposition presents a new election program: What will happen with northern Syria and the Syrian refugees?
The oppositional “National Alliance” (Turkish: Millet tifak), which is composed of six parties, presented its new election program on January 30, 2022, for the upcoming elections in Turkey. By decree, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just recently ordered snap elections to be held, which were previously scheduled for June 18, 2023. Now, the presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on May 14, 2023. Barely three months before the elections, Turkey’s largest opposition alliance presented a “joint political statement of intent,” which is considered the alliance’s election manifesto.
Syria is not mentioned in Turkey’s foreign policy
The 240-page election program consists of nine core points and more than 200 declared goals, whereby the goals in the field of foreign affairs, which were eagerly awaited by foreign policy analysts and observers, are shared in the last point.
At first glance, it is noticeable that no specific goals were written for Syria and the partially occupied parts of Northern Syria, while other conflict issues such as Armenia-Azerbaijan or Greece were directly addressed by name. However, Syria should be at the top of the foreign policy agenda, since Turkey is an occupying power in northern Syria and another military invasion might be possible at any time, as can be seen from the enunciated threats of the current Turkish government.
“A foreign policy that respects international law and the sovereignty of neighboring countries”?
The opposition alliance promises “a foreign policy that respects international law, represents universal values, and, above all, respects the territorial integrity and sovereignty of neighboring countries.” It continues by stating that “practices that have domestic political and ideological intentions will no longer have a place in foreign policy.” International law experts and the Bundestag’s research service have repeatedly stated that Turkey’s occupation of northern Syria is illegal. In practice, if the election program is followed, Turkey would be forced to withdraw from Northern Syria.
(N/A) position on military invasions in northern Syria?
Furthermore, the announcement of not taking any foreign policy action for domestic purposes could be interpreted as a rejection of future military invasions, as this accusation has often been made in the past. But politicians in the opposition alliance have repeatedly expressed contradictory views on this in the past. Even as recently as November of last year, when the Turkish army launched an air campaign against North and East Syria, Faik Öztrak , spokesman for the CHP, the largest opposition party and a member of the opposition alliance, supported a possible ground offensive in Northern Syria while criticizing those who wanted to generate votes at the expense of the Turkish soldiers stationed there. In this respect, it is not foreseeable what the Turkish opposition’s plans for Syria and the northern parts of the country are, although, in the election program, it is emphasized that they will “improve relations with neighboring countries and bring cooperation to the best possible level,” but without explicitly mentioning Syria. However, CHP spokesman Öztrak stated in the same speech at the time that the goal was to immediately normalize relations with Syria.
“We ensure the return of the Syrian refugees in the shortest possible time.”
The intentions regarding Syria only become clearer when it comes to the topic of “migration and asylum policy.” At the end of the election program, this sub-item occupies a large place, with Syrian refugees being the only refugee group to be listed by name. The election program promises that “the return of the Syrians who are currently under temporary protection will be taken care of at the next given opportunity.” Several measures intended to limit the number of refugees and their freedoms within Turkey, such as restricted freedom of movement, repatriation agreements, and the possible withdrawal of residence permits or Turkish passports that have already been issued, are further presented.
Close cooperation with the Assad regime
It is also announced that they will “work closely with the Syrian leadership for the repatriation of Syrian refugees,” which explains why the opposition alliance is striving for rapid normalization with the Assad regime.
In the event of a takeover, they also want to talk to all groups in Syria and start an intensive dialogue with the government in Damascus to achieve “lasting peace.” As stated in the election program, “terrorist groups” are excluded from this, which excludes a dialogue with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria since the opposition alliance, like the Turkish government, does not recognize the region and its fight and considers the Autonomous Administration to belong to the category of “terrorist groups.”
Questionable support for a holistic Syrian solution
The opposition alliance promises “to support UN Resolution No. 2254 for a solution to the conflict for the sake of sustainable peace in Syria, the sovereignty of Syria’s territorial integrity, and the safe repatriation of refugees.” Whether this will be the case remains questionable, since the willingness to support the UN resolution will essentially depend on the question of including the autonomous administration of north and east Syria. The current government in Turkey refuses any negotiations or involvement in the region in the peace talks, although Mazloum Abdi, general commander of the regional forces of the SDF, recently signaled peace intentions and a willingness to negotiate.
Similar foreign and migration policy views
In the field of foreign and migration policy, the opinions and goals of the current government and the opposition alliance do not appear to be far apart. The AKP government recently started an attempt to normalize relations with the Assad regime, which the opposition alliance is also striving for. The Turkish government has stylized itself as the enemy for years and still supports Syrian opposition groups. Political observers saw this as an electoral maneuver. Syrian refugees have become an integral part of Turkey’s elections. Public sentiment towards Syrian refugees in the economically troubled country is at its lowest point, including among voters in the current governing party. The attempts to get closer to the Syrian regime were also justified by the attempt to repatriate the Syrian refugees.
What is happening to the Syrian refugees?
Over three million registered Syrian refugees continue to live in Turkey. According to the Turkish Ministry of the Interior, more than 500,000 Syrian refugees have already been “voluntarily” repatriated. They were, in fact, mostly taken to the occupation zones of Turkey, where most of these refugees do not originally hail from. Many refugees report arbitrariness and threats, which makes the talk of “voluntary return” questionable. The fate of Syrian refugees in Turkey is uncertain. Both the opposition alliance and the AKP government are working on new ways to repatriate them. Syrian refugees face an uncertain future in light of the elections.
maintaining the status quo?
The election program of the opposition alliance gives the impression that there is a willingness to normalize relations with the Assad regime for the repatriation of the Syrian refugees, but at the same time they are also willing to continue with the practice of an occupation in Northern Syria. The lack of concrete statements regarding the occupied areas or possible military operations leads to this assumption. After all, “national interests and national security” were defined as the primary goals in the election manifesto with the justifications and wording used by the Turkish government for its occupation of Northern Syria.